THE THREE-TEST SCORECARD · SELECT A MARKET REGIME
Was the Return Skill, Luck or Both?
Click a regime. The same investor behavior can look brilliant in one environment and reckless in another.
01
Entry test
Was the thesis specific before the price moved?
Were valuation and downside defined?
Would you buy if the ticker were unknown?
Weak signal in a boom
02
Exit test
Did you convert paper gains into durable assets?
Was position size reduced as assumptions stretched?
Could taxes and liquidity be managed?
High evidence of skill
03
Repeatability test
Did the process work across different regimes?
Were errors documented before hindsight?
Did capital survive the drawdown?
Unproven until conditions change
Boom verdict: returns are real, but attribution is weakest.When liquidity lifts almost every risky asset, entry success says little. Exit discipline and survival carry more information than the headline gain.
Editorial framework derived from the Burry-Cuban debate. It evaluates process, not personal intelligence, and is not investment advice.