CRISIS PLAYBOOK · NO UNIVERSAL SAFE HAVEN

Five Crisis Assets—Each Solves a Different Problem

● Editorial scenario scores—neither a backtest nor an allocation recommendation. Select a scenario to see why.

Asset / Proxy

Squeeze / Deflation

Inflation

U.S. Credibility

Long USDUUP / BBDXT · Funding

●●● Strong

Global rush for dollar funding

●●○ Solid

Works if the Fed is relatively more hawkish

○○○ Weak

Fails if dollar credibility breaks

Managed FuturesDBMF · Trend

●●○ Solid

Can short stocks and own bonds

●●● Strong

Can ride rates and commodities

●●○ Solid

Needs persistent trends

GoldGLD / IAU · Credit

●●○ Solid

Benefits after policy easing starts

●●○ Conditional

Higher real yields are a headwind

●●● Strong

No single-issuer credit risk

Consumer StaplesXLP · Demand Defense

●●○ Defensive

Demand falls less than income

●●○ Defensive

Pricing power matters most

●○○ Limited

Still equities; multiples can fall

Long TreasuriesTLT · Duration

●●● Strong

Falling yields reward duration

○○○ Weak

Rate hikes magnify losses

●○○ Limited

U.S. sovereign stress hurts

Dollar squeeze to deflation: cash wins first; duration can win next The dollar often wins the initial scramble for cash. If collapsing growth then forces rate cuts, Treasury duration takes over. Managed futures may capture both trends.

Scenario fit●●● Strong●●○ Solid / Conditional●○○ Limited○○○ Weak

Framework: World Gold Council, Man Group / SG Trend, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and the New York Fed. Editorial scores compare mechanisms only; historical relationships do not guarantee future performance.