Market-priced probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the September 2026 FOMC, Sept 3-12
100
80
60
40
20
implied hike odds (%)
55%
62%
70%
90%
84%
Sept 3
pre-jobs
Sept 4
strong jobs beat
Sept 10
FedWatch 70%+
Sept 11
hot CPI, peak
Sept 12
settles 84%
Pricing swung on two catalysts - a fragile,
discretion-dependent bet, not a settled
structural outcome.
Sept 15-16
FOMC
resolution
hinge
hike or hold