The Next Seven Days Can Reprice Every Major Asset
The labor market has already weakened. Now inflation, spending and the Fed's internal debate arrive in sequence.
July CPI
Tests whether June's energy-led decline was durable or temporary.
Long bonds and expensive growth absorb the first hit.
COOL → easing returnsDuration rallies—unless weak demand becomes the bigger fear.
July PPI
Shows whether business input costs are still feeding the pipeline.
The “inflation solved” narrative can reverse in one morning.
COOL WITH CPIThe Fed gets a cleaner path toward patience or easing.
Retail Sales
Separates falling inflation from falling household demand.
Consumers keep growth alive but can preserve price pressure.
WEAK → earnings riskRate relief may arrive only because the economy is cracking.
FOMC Minutes
Reveals how close the July hold was to becoming a rate hike.
Three dissents may look like the start of a larger bloc.
CAUTIOUS MAJORITYEmployment weakness can regain priority after the vote.
A soft CPI can rally bonds, a hot PPI can reverse them, weak retail sales can turn good inflation news into a recession warning, and the minutes can reprice the policy path again.