Conversion lag
27 months
Efficiency deflation
off
conversion in progress
The lagged path from AI capex to index earnings breadth
Hyperscaler capex flows to compute orders, waits through an 18-36 month revenue lag, then books as earnings that decide index breadth; cheap AI mentions bypass the plumbing straight into chatter breadth.
cheap signal bypasses the plumbing
AI mention on call
near-zero-cost · 65%
chatter breadth
chatter ~65%
Hyperscaler capex
$660–690bn guided · 2026
MSFT · GOOGL · AMZN · META
ORCL · AWS · Google Cloud
AI seller orders
Nvidia ~$46.7bn (Q2'26)
AI & cloud revenue
18–36 month lag
supply-constrained
~$80bn backlog
gated by power
Index EPS breadth
durable test · 12–24 mo
10%
earnings breadth
beyond AI sellers?
capital deployed now vs revenue now
$660–690bn capex guided for 2026
<$35bn pure-play AI revenue ≈1/20th
OpenAI ~$20bn ARR · Anthropic >$9bn