All-capex (2026 spend high)
Deceleration (spend growth slows)
Capex escalation inverts free cash flow: cash reservoir split by a spend-growth deceleration gate
Operating cash flow
revenue + margins grow
Spend-growth deceleration gate
FCF converts only when spend
growth decelerates past cash generation
cash generation
Capex spend
2026 spend up, $200B+
noncancelable wall
Free cash flow
thin / negative
2026 sell-side projection
Free cash flow
re-converted
positive flow returns
cash drained below