Rival volume
Rivals retrench
Rivals rebound
Tesla US EV share recovery via rival retrenchment
Soft US EV market after incentive expiry; non-Tesla volume contracts faster than Tesla, so Tesla's share climbs above 50% without absolute demand growth, but stays exposed to rival volume.
Soft US EV market
after federal incentive expiry
Tesla EV
contracts less
Non-Tesla EV
retrenches faster
both contract
total volume falls
50%
share of US EV held by Tesla
relative, not absolute demand
Share recovery is relative
bear case countered
Rests on rival retrenchment
reversible by rival volume