Loop:
Running — capex rising
Breaking — capex cut
AI capex to silicon to ETF ranking feedback loop
semis / tech rank top
loop tightens
hyperscaler AI capex
infra capex spending
1 · capex is the fuel
demand
capex cut
2 · AI accelerators & HBM
silicon converts capex
into compute
chip revenues & margins rise
semiconductor earnings
3 · earnings
HBM stack
GPU accelerator die
interposer
AI-ROI / oversupply?
momentum & relative-strength
signals strengthen
4 · signal
revisions roll over
5 · AI ETF factor-screen
capital-gains ranking
1
SOXX
semis
2
VGT
tech
3
QQQ
IT
4
SPY
broad
6
ETF fund inflows
prices & valuations up
R — reinforcing loop
loop tightens as inflows feed more capex