Prolonged walkout
Quick ratification
cascade runs to credit pressure
Boeing strike-risk cascade from contract rejection to repricing
Escalation ladder from the SPEEA contract rejection through the strike-vote clock, walkout branches, deferred deliveries and deferred cash, to credit pressure and re-rating, with firewall brakes that can arrest the cascade.
SPEEA rejects deal
3% raise cap · Aug 21
Strike-vote clock
October expiry
Walkout branch
brake
Cascade held
ratify before Oct
1
2
3
IAM-type walkout
halts 737 · 787 · 777X
SPEEA strike
idles MAX 10 · 777-9
Deferred deliveries
aircraft sit at the gate
4
airplane body · 737 MAX · 787 · 777X lines
SPEEA cert
Cash
at handover
5
FCF miss
below $1–3B guide
$20.9B cash
+ $10B revolver
Credit pressure
revolver draw
new debt build
6
Re-rating
estimate cuts
~28.7x EV/EBITDA
order backlog deferred,
not destroyed