Memory has a self-reinforcing supply → price → profit loop. Toggle the state to watch the record-margin feedback invert when simultaneously-funded mega-capex lands into moderating AI demand (~2028 is a flagged risk branch, not a certainty).

Memory supply-to-price-to-profit feedback loop and its ~2028 oversupply-flip risk A wafer fab capacity feeds an HBM packaging stack sold out at record prices, funding record margins and FCF that pay for simultaneous mega-capex, which can either reinvest in the hot loop or ~2028 land as oversupply that compresses prices and margins. DRAM/HBM wafer capacity Supply inelastic scaling stalled · 4-5 yr capacity leads Sold out 2026-27 HBM/DRAM at record ASPs Record margins and FCF margins compress Simultaneous mega-capex funded by record cash flow feeds next round Flip ~2028 capacity lands as AI demand moderates compress compression loop Prices/margins compress — cyclical view vindicated