Meta cash waterfall: operating cash flow, capex draw-off, free cash flow, buybacks and debt Ads + AI monetization Operating cash flow the waterfall's supply Capex outgrows monetization absorbs OCF FCF 0 tripwire: Q2 FCF print cash waterfall compresses OCF lags capex FCF inflects positive free cash flow turns negative returns to holders Buybacks Buybacks pause buybacks resume Long-term debt climbs stays low Re-rating holds $855 case intact Bull case breaks multiple compresses earnings multiple compresses even while revenues grow consensus FY26-27: negative FCF - a modeled scenario, not a forecast