toggle where the re-rate case clears or breaks
De-risking re-rate versus the Merck 50/50 profit-split cap INTerpath-001 Phase 3 success binary risk removed One-day re-rate of Moderna equity Option → platform multi-indication stock overshoot above capped share Moderna's 50% caps the floor Worldwide vaccine economics all costs + profits, worldwide Merck 50% share Moderna 50% share 50/50 split caps the upside Bull thesis breaks at the gate Re-rated price embeds early-stage indication revenue Endpoint splits disappoint: Phase 3 hazard ratios and EFS/DMFS/OS splits are withheld, "clinically meaningful" only. endpoint splits disappoint Filing and review delayed or unfavorable: no regulatory filing or approval date is disclosed. filing / review delayed, unfavorable Manufacturing or reimbursement underdelivers on the commercial roll-out. manufacturing / reimbursement Peak sales were priced above any credible forecast: melanoma peak-sales figures are analyst estimates, not company guidance. peak sales over-forecast 1 2 3 5 4 6