Watch the straddle premium and the implied range
Earnings-event IV premium and IV crush in the ATM straddle priced move around spot (ATM) implied range ±4.26% HD weekly straddle post-event range realized one-day move: roughly flat spot (ATM strike) straddle premium, near-dated ATM 27.6% post-event time value 42.5% LOW avg IV earnings-event IV premium straddle premium = jump priced in premium lost IV crush 42.5% - 27.6% 1 Report approaches event IV premium 2 Straddle prices jump prices implied range 3 Report prints uncertainty resolves 4 IV crush volatility collapses 5 Realized in range straddle loses premium 6 Overestimate fade implied range
1. Scheduled earnings report approaches — near-dated options chain carries a discrete event-volatility premium.