Earnings leg
Fed leg
Break a leg by tapping it (or its gate) — watch the loop keep grinding or stall
How the earnings-and-seasonality grind works without rate cuts: two legs spin a grind flywheel; two break gates can stall it
AI capex surge
hyperscalers · cloud re-accel
AI food chain
chips · cloud · infra
Broad S&P 500 EPS
Q1 +30% · Q2 ~+32%
wide beats
break 1
2027 EPS held
Fed on hold
3.50–3.75% parked
Real yields eased
no multiple drag
10-yr ~3.99% · real ~0.99%
break 2
Fed hold intact
the grind
two legs compounding
Modest grind higher
steady, not a surge
Grind stalls
loop de-energized
Q4 seasonality
Oct
Nov
Dec
strong · Dec softer