Q3 guide at/above consensus
Q3 guide below consensus
How hyperscaler capex feeds Nvidia data-center revenue through the upstream supply throttle and how the Q3 guide reads out compounding versus digestion
Hyperscaler capex wave
Big Four data-center spend rising
Demand lag
capex leads revenue
~1-2 quarters
capex demand
CoWoS advanced packaging
wafer-level fan-out
HBM4 memory stacks
die stacks per module
TSMC leading-edge nodes
wafer starts allocated
Data-center revenue
dominant share of Nvidia sales
China data-center
zero revenue in guide
external constraint
Q3 guide
vs consensus
Inventory build-up
early-warning signal
Compounding
wave keeps flowing
Digestion
/ inflection
wave throttles back
at/above consensus
below consensus
shipment throttle
capacity-bound through 2027
loop: wave sustains the next readout