Growth path
Failure path
Defense rearmament to Palantir revenue and valuation
appropriation cut
ceiling under-delivers
Geopolitical competition
rearmament pressure
Battlefield lessons
autonomy in combat
US defense topline
a request, not an enacted budget
AI command-and-control
autonomous systems procurement
Palantir software layer
Maven first, then broad enterprise vehicles
Consolidated contracts
fewer renewals, higher switching cost
Recurring government revenue
contract flow becomes recurring
US commercial growth
faster growth adds to total
Investors price the growth
extreme valuation multiple
contract flow continues
Multiple holds
priced on today's contract flow
Multiple reprices
appropriation cut, revenue slows