Forward covenant
Payoff path
Lag path
Capex to free-cash-flow plumbing and the payback covenant
AI infrastructure buildout
capex ramp
Q1 FY27 capex RMB 67.7B
FY26 RMB 126B · 3-yr 380B
RMB 190B spent
Operating cash generation
OCF RMB 22.9B / qtr
operating inflow, +11% y/y
inflow can't cover the ramp
AI compute demand > supply to 2030
cash buffer
RMB 474.5B liquid
Free-cash-flow gap
cash burn
FCF -RMB 44.7B
vs -RMB 18.8B yr ago
Margin and
earnings compression
AI Labs loss RMB 13.9B
quick-commerce subsidies
goodwill impairment RMB 4.5B
NI -38% non-GAAP · GAAP -75%
Payback covenant
compress payback horizon
target ≤2.5 yrs
Returns keep pace
FCF turns positive
forward multiple
expands
Returns lag
cash burn persists
forward multiple
compresses
returns refill buffer
payback horizon (yrs)
0
1 yr
2 yr
3 yr
4 yr
→ ≤2.5 yrs
Capex payback ~3 yrs toward ≤2.5 yrs is management guidance, not a reported result. Cash buffer is Alibaba-reported cash and liquid investments; it is not a net-debt figure.