1pre-war baseline · ~130 vessel transits/day, ~1/5 of world oil 2ceasefire lapse Aug 17 · transits 5 (Sat), 0 (Sun), traffic ~90% below 3effectively closed · long reroutes around the Arabian Peninsula 4Brent vs WTI · seaborne prices in risk, landlocked lags 5why no spike yet · covert barrels, Iran-Oman traffic talks 6re-rating triggers vs counter · escalation vs deal
Re-rating triggers: fresh tanker attack · US-Iran clash near the strait · US military action Counter-scenario: Iran-Oman or US-Iran accord restores free passage
Strait of Hormuz closure propagating to oil and energy risk How a Hormuz closure reroutes seaborne oil around the Arabian Peninsula and tips Brent-versus-WTI oil pricing between a calm war premium and a full-closure re-rating, depending on escalation versus deal triggers. Iran north shore Oman / Arabian Peninsula south coast Persian Gulf Strait of Hormuz Gulf of Oman Indian Ocean Gulf barrels Iran-Oman traffic talks Washington objects open passage traffic ~90% below closed freight ↑ war-risk ↑ covert shipments seaborne barrels Brent seaborne WTI landlocked calm re-rating Brent WTI Brent − WTI spread