Realized move
lands inside the range
breaks out of the range
The earnings IV-crush loop: implied move vs realized move
The print
Premium loading
sessions before the report
IV crush
event risk resolved
cycle resets
time
IV
implied move
straddle width
realized move
Outcome branch
Seller harvests premium
realized inside the range
Buyer profits
realized outside the range
The analytic edge
options imply
actual record
the spread
wider spread richer premium; narrow cheaper