Spend persists
Capex pullback
Re-balance to Broadcom
Google-Marvell tranche mechanism: a conditional ceiling, not committed revenue
Google's discretionary AI capex feeds qualifying custom-silicon revenue through a 500M tranche unlock gate into a back-loaded ramp. Spend persists toward the 240-tranche cap; pullback or re-balance to Broadcom stalls the ramp and concentrates the risk.
Google
discretionary AI capex
3
spend must persist
through FY'33
the whole runway
1
Google signs Marvell
custom-silicon design wins
inference
storage / NIC
memory-interface
near-memory
optical / networking wins
Marvell silicon
qualifying revenue
tranche unlock
each $500M to 1 of 240
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
FY32
FY33
4
back-loading
bulk after FY'28
ceiling
reached
Broadcom deal
2026–2031
5
concentration risk
ramp stalls · single customer