Narrative intact
AI-capex wobble
CoreWeave cash waterfall: why the stock can fall while revenue accelerates
Stage 1 ·
Revenue visibility
contracted backlog
Stage 2 · Capex buildout
GPU infra · cash leaves fast
Stage 2 ·
Funding gap opens
OCF below capex
FCF deeply negative
gap
Stage 3 · funding sources
Borrowings
Convertibles
Strategic
debt + dilution pile up
Stage 4 ·
Hold-up discount
debt + leases take the bulk
thin residual to equity
Stage 5 · Repricing trigger
valuation valve
AI-capex wobble
Narrative intact
multiple holds
price runs with EBITDA
Narrative wobble
multiple compresses
price down · EBITDA up