Share-gain gate
AMD Instinct catch-up versus Nvidia accelerator moat: the share-gain gate decides AMD's outcome 1 · hyperscaler capex — shared demand Hyperscaler AI capex feeds both lanes 2 · Nvidia holds the moat CUDA ecosystem software + scale 3 · AMD Helios catch-up Anthropic up to 2GW MI450 AI Instinct ramp MI400 · MI450 CDNA 5 · Helios roadmap execution MI455X · MI430X · MI350P share-gain gate roadmap → share open NVDA moat intact CUDA lock-in holds Share lands grows into its multiple Share stalls de-rating risk 5 · outcome: gate open → share lands; gate closed → de-rating share figures are analyst estimates (Nvidia ~80%, AMD est. 5-7%), not audited