Gate: InP scarcity holds → sustain path
Scarcity holds → sustain
Scarcity eases → decay
AI datacenter demand flows through the InP EML/laser bottleneck into AAOI record revenue and split analyst targets, resolving in an Aug 14 breakout that sits mid-band.
AI datacenter capex
pulls 800G/1.6T
optical transceiver orders
InP EML/laser chip supply
order bottleneck
30–40+ wk lead time
outpaces InP supply ~30%
200K
650K
AAOI scales capacity
to ~650K units/month
by end-2026 (from ~200K)
Fifth straight record revenue
raised Q3 guidance
Top pick, raised
high target
Cut to Neutral
low target
low target
high target
$150.28 mid-band
Aug 14 breakout
InP scarcity eases
by end-2026?
Sustain: breakout holds
orders stay ahead of capacity
Decay: multiple compresses
pricing power normalizes
decay branch is a projection, not a certainty