Compute capacity gate
Feedback (stage 4 to stage 1)
loop closed
gate open · run rate compounding
Self-reinforcing loop: product surface to revenue to compute reinvestment to served demand and back
self-reinforcing
loop
compounds
1 · Product surface
Claude Code · Cowork
AWS · Google Cloud · Azure
2 · Revenue conversion
usage + subscription terms
enterprise + API usage
3 · Reinvestment
AWS · 5 GW
TPU · 5 GW
xAI Colossus
Micron · Samsung · SK hynix
gate
4 · Capacity → served demand
run rate compounds ~7x
~$9B '25 → ~$65B '26
demand gated
capacity-bound
open loop
no compounding