Reopening deal
Escalation
Reopening deal vs escalation re-routes oil, gold, Gulf equities, and the US risk tape
Iran
Tehran
Arabia / Oman
passage open
strait shut
traffic ≈ 3-mo low
US: open · total control
Iran: shut until blockade lifts
war premium · held by standoff
Reopening deal
deal signed · transit on
Escalation
talks fail · energy struck
Oil
eases → ~$78
premium deflates
retest >$95
spike zone
Gold
haven bid fades
under ceiling
breaks out
>$4,504 200-DMA
Gulf equities
windfall kept
discount shrinks
war-risk discount
widens again
US tape · defense
calm tape
VIX ~15
defense de-rates
risk-off pivot
defense re-rates