Supercycle on
Capex stall
HBM supply catch-up
Capacity rebalance
Supercycle on — record capex feeds HBM demand; commodity DRAM/NAND is starved; contract prices surge; the ~75% memory-maker fund NAV rides the price cycle almost one-for-one.
Why the DRAM memory fund rides the memory price cycle (and what reverses it)
Hyperscaler AI capex
record 2026 ~2x 2025
AI-server buildout
demands HBM + GPUs
oligopoly shifts wafer + packaging → HBM
Micron
Samsung
SK Hynix
HBM → AI servers
commodity DRAM / NAND / SSD
commodity exit
~1:1
contract prices surge
memory price → fund NAV
DRAM fund
MU
27%
Samsung
26%
SK Hynix
22%
~75% in the 3 memory makers
nav rides the price cycle ~1:1
reversal branches
Capex stall
spend growth stalls
HBM supply catch-up
new fab capacity online
Capacity rebalance
wafer back to DRAM/NAND
Pricing power fades
fund reprices sharply