one loop, two spins — flip the credibility lever

Long-end term premium versus equity-duration feedback loop 1 · structural drivers press the long end deficit AI capex reshoring inflation long-end yields 2 · 30y at multi-dec high duration complex QQQ · growth tech 5 · breadth stabilises 3 · first leg down Treasury buyback 4 · doubled backstop 4 · tactical backstop credible tactical 6 · credible — relief runloop reinforces 6 · tactical — reverse to step 2QQQ first leg down down-rates liftduration complex spike sinksduration · QQQ first relief validatesthe backstop skid exposesthe backstop doubled buybackpresses the 30y backstop tacticalyields re-spike