Demand outruns supply
New capacity lands 2027–29
InP wafer chokepoint between AI datacenter capex and optical transceivers
Hyperscaler AI capex
GPU-dense clusters
800G / 1.6T optics
co-packaged optics
EML / CW laser chips
epitaxial on InP
THE CHOKEPOINT
wafer step binds first
InP epitaxial layers
InP wafer supply
AXTI · JX · Sumitomo
High-purity indium
AXTI Jin Mei JV
widens neck
JX 7–10x InP build
2027–29 · Coherent 6-in
backlog builds
orders beat wafer output
new wafers ahead of orders
Coherent / Lumentum
LTSA + prepay lock InP
Pricing power holds
margins, backlog persist
Premium compresses
InP pricing normalizes