Policy regime
Incentive-dominant
Cost-shift · pay your own grid
Incentive-dominant: tax packages open · marginal incentive-only greenfield still clears the bar
Incentive rollback reshapes data-center siting
AI data-center load
large-load demand
policy shift
incentives flow
pay your own grid
grid costs → loads
deal-math repricing
tax ↔ grid economics
routing
decision
load re-routes
utility rate base
contracted load
where recovery allowed
durable
merchant · co-located
nuclear & merchant PPAs
co-location at existing plants
durable
incentive greenfield
new build · self-funded grid
clears the bar
moratoria · bans
fragile
most state actions are pauses / moratoria with grandfathering · policy fluid
durable vs fragile is the analytical read, not a guarantee