resolution
opening move
confirmed
invalidated
confirmed: momentum
holds
rolls over
durability confirmed: price holds the breakout zone and momentum keeps climbing
AAOI breakout durability: what confirms the move and what invalidates it
A heavy-volume breakout above $140 diverges into a sustained uptrend if price holds support and momentum climbs, or a volume-fade bull-trap if price fails back through $140 and the 50-day SMA.
AAOI breakout durability
price vs. momentum / volume
$190–$220
bull targets
analyst zone
$163–$178
$140
breakout level
$134
50-day support
below 50-day SMA,
~$134
prior summer fade
gap-fill downtrend
follow-through
bull targets
$190–$220 run
early rollover
volume-fade
bull-trap
flag as failed
close below breakout
then below the support
~36% off 52-wk high
early warning
MACD & RSI lack stamina
momentum
signal
RSI ~61
MACD +
holds steady
fading
Aug 14: breakout above $140
heavy volume — ~23% turnover
price above both moving averages
constructive momentum at entry
the same setup for both roads ahead