AI memory upcycle
HBM pricing-power → equipment orders → foundry + CoWoS, closing into a capacity feedback loop
Boom: supply discipline
Catch-up: oversupply
AI memory upcycle: HBM pricing, wafer-fab equipment orders, foundry and CoWoS packaging, and the capacity feedback loop that can break the supercycle into oversupply
DRAM fabs
memory capacity
AI-server memory demand
HBM stacks
CoWoS interposer
package substrate
fab equipment
Hyperscaler
AI-server capex
raises HBM demand
Pricing power
Micron · HBM/DRAM
Equipment orders
Lam Research · AMAT
follows memory capex
Foundry
CoWoS · TSMC
binding constraint
reinforces HBM scarcity
supply discipline holds
pricing power breaks
Memory capex
funded by margins
Capacity expands
fabs & CoWoS output
Oversupply
supercycle breaks
margins fund capex
oversupply feeds back