Scenario
AI capex rising
GPU price compression
Merchant GPU vs wafer-scale and custom silicon: where Ark's fund flow votes
AI capex
hyperscalers + labs
Merchant GPU
Nvidia · AMD
GPU
HBM
HBM
high volume
price competition
Wafer-scale
Cerebras WSE
one wafer · single die
no HBM join
skips HBM bottleneck
structurally tighter
Custom ASIC
Broadcom
custom die
by contract
hyperscaler-owned
contract allocation
tight supply
AMD
trim
Nvidia
add
Cerebras
add
Broadcom
add
Ark fund flow · actively managed
aug rotation votes the tighter-supply lanes
AI capex keeps rising
all paths win · sector beta
AMD the marginal trim
GPU pricing compresses
tighter-supply lanes hold
AMD the marginal loser
de-risked since late Apr
toggle the scenario — fund votes re-route to the tighter-supply lanes