Divergence intact
Hold / no hike
Data-driven hike
Warsh cave
Politics-versus-pricing divergence and its fragility
Presidential
demands cuts
trade · firing
Market pricing
prices on data
Fed independence
divergence · high odds
unstable equilibrium
single trigger
one data print
or a Warsh cave
Hold — no hike
priced hike
evaporates
Data-driven hike
retaliation follows
2026 path repriced
Warsh cave
no hike
path repriced
retaliation feeds pressure