deal outcome price path reroutes; verdict flips
How the $31 deal cap creates the rally ceiling and the insider cluster $28 $11-14 WBD share price $31 cash deal signed Feb 27 sets ceiling $31 deal cap capped upside discount = break risk current band rally = arb pricing not fundamentals uncapped downside if deal breaks, price re-rates to fundamentals fundamental floor rev -6.1%, FCF -46% op margin -4.6% YoY exec harvest gains to cash Zaslav Mar Zaslav Jul Zeiler Aug near top of pre-close range sellers prudent de-risked into close
deal-closes flow deal-breaks flow harvest rail cap / floor

The chain is causal logic; dollar levels annotate the substrate. The unresolved variable is whether the clustered sales were 10b5-1-planned (mechanical) or discretionary — not resolvable from the price axis alone.