Funding-discipline gate:
Disciplined
Constrained
converts to positive FCF
cash burn persists
Backlog-to-FCF conversion path gated by funding discipline
Frontier-model demand
Cloud demand
Multi-year AI contracts
booked, multi-year
$664B RPO backlog
booked on balance sheet
no cash recognized yet
zero free cash flow
Capacity-first buildout
capex front-loaded
negative FCF trough
Funding discipline
the gating variable
~$40B env / ~$70B capex
gate: open → convert
Recognition cadence
12% yr 1 · 34% mo 13-36
Cash burn persists
conversion stalls
Positive free cash flow
converts after buildout