Unresolved default
Branch A · deal formalizes
Branch B · deal collapses
The ~$337 price as a stand-alone economics floor plus an implicit SpaceX merger option, gated by two keep-alive conditions and branching into a realized re-rating or a collapse back to fundamentals, with the GARP buy trigger at the branch point.
~$337 market price
today: unresolved · nothing filed
implicit SpaceX merger option
the gap above fundamentals
stand-alone economics floor
thin margin · negative FCF
deal odds
non-trivial
Musk won't
rule out a deal
Musk rules it out
one condition breaks
deal formalizes
re-rating realized
dilution for SpaceX upside
deal collapses
revert to fundamentals
current multiple → downside
buy trigger: term sheet
buy trigger: margin inflection
trigger = branch point: term sheet (tolerable dilution) or margin inflection — not the unresolved state