US-licensed China export pipeline gating Data Center revenue US licensing clears pipeline case-by-case H200 policy cleared buyers Alibaba Tencent ByteDance JD.com per-buyer volume caps third-party US testing revenue share remitted approved capacity Beijing import gate + buyer drawdown Shipment → Data Center revenue zero-China guide converts on top Upside: gates open estimates up multiple compresses Base case: gates stay closed free option print rests on core demand core Data Center demand Blackwell + Vera Rubin converted China revenue
Default state: the Beijing gate stays nearly dry — only very small volumes have shipped — so the Aug 26 print resolves on non-China Blackwell and Vera Rubin demand. Flip the gate open to see approved China capacity convert on top of the zero-China guide and lift estimates.