High rate
Rates falling
Mortgage rates gate housing turnover, which gates renovate-vs-move demand and Lowe's comparable sales
Rate level
mortgage stays high
shut
open
Housing turnover
shut · turnover low
Renovate-vs-move
households decide
Move-in renovation
kitchen · bath
flooring
Move-in renovation
dormant·no turnover
Repair & Pro
share gains
small tickets
LOW comps
LOW comps
supportive but capped
LOW stock
LOW stock
capped by turnover
Flip the rate regime: the turnover gate opens or stays shut and the renovation lane re-routes.