Fuel-price path
Demand
Airline supply discipline lifts yields while fuel squeezes margins drivers engine terminals Spirit shutdown −1–3% domestic ASMs ULCC pressure gone step 1 Jet fuel $2.30 → $4.88 / gal Mid-East disruption step 4 Demand leisure + corporate firm step 7 Top-4 carrier pricing power UAL · DAL · AAL · LUV CPI airfares +26.5% YoY yields rise step 2 → 3 Margin gate IATA 6.9% → 4.1% $72.8B → $48B step 5 JETS exposure ~41% in top-4 carriers asymmetric amplifier step 6 Pricing holds yields > fuel JETS wins step 7 ✓ Squeeze wins margins fall JETS lags step 7 ✗ feedback
fuel: $4.88 peak demand: firm margin squeeze overwhelms pricing power