Correction · margin stabilizes + 1.6T ramp holds
Warning · margin keeps eroding under depreciation load
Fabrinet margin and cash-flow waterfall: how a record beat-and-raise became a ~7% after-hours de-rating
Beat-and-raise
lifts estimates
rev $1.316B (+45%) · EPS $4.10
Gross-margin tension
slips ~30bps YoY to 12.2%
mix + depreciation pressure
Cash-flow tension
Q4 FCF -$36.9M
capex $252.5M vs OCF $256.7M
Valuation backdrop
~51x trailing P/E
amplifies the two tensions
amplifier dial
run-up +13.6% in 5 days
Outcome
~7% after-hours de-rating
Branch A · correction
margin stabilizes
+ 1.6T ramp holds → buy-the-dip
Branch B · warning
margin erodes under
depreciation → de-rating compounds