Full throttle
Chain breaks
flip the regime to trace how a capex pullback weakens bookings, revenue and the multiple
Hyperscaler AI capex into Broadcom custom-ASIC backlog, revenue and forward multiple
hyperscaler AI compute cluster
hyperscaler AI capex demand
custom ASIC
TPU / XPU
AI Ethernet
Tomahawk · Jericho
Capex commit
~$660–690B FY26
~70% design share
TPU 2031 · OpenAI · Apple
Committed backlog
~$73B · visibility to 2028
EPS + ~33x
fwd multiple
AI revenue ramp
Q1 8.4
Q2 10.8
Q3 16
FY26 56
FY27 >100
EPS + multiple
compress
double hit
capex cut
digested
NVIDIA redirect
select the failure trigger
EPS + multiple compress together
backlog slows · guidance missed · double hit