Capex converts
Conversion fails
toggle the AI-capex conversion variable
How AI-capex conversion determines whether a growth slowdown becomes a price decline
~20x forward multiple
near 10-yr average, so pinned
index rides on the earnings numerator
AI capex ~$754B
2026 infra spend
Converts to
recurring revenue?
Recurring revenue
EPS holds ~+13%
Multiple holds
index holds ~7,600
Conversion fails
EPS decelerates ~13%
Multiple gives way
slowdown to price decline
AI conversion gate