Focus camp
Broadcom · anchored
Marvell · chaser
Resolution
Upside · multiple holds
Downside · exposure
Custom AI ASIC co-design duopoly: Broadcom anchored lane vs Marvell chaser lane, binary growth gate, upside and downside outcomes
1 · Hyperscaler AI capex
funds which custom-XPU programs
2 · program award split
Broadcom co-design lead
≈70%
Google TPU
supply to 2031
Meta MTIA
OpenAI chip-net
Anthropic
Apple
Marvell chaser
≈20-25% share
AWS Trainium
production anchor
Microsoft Maia
catch-up program
runs catch-up to Google TPU
3 · per-program growth
binary: scales or stalls
co-design service economics stay capital-light
4 · upside · new wins scale
MSFT adder $1-2B · > ~1M units
Google CXL switching ~$1.2B
chasers convert to scaled anchors
premium multiple holds
5 · downside · exposure
AWS + Microsoft concentration
no 2031-style supply pact
anchor deceleration
franchise exposed