capacity conversion pace
fast conversion
stalled buildout
deployed capacity converts into higher-margin MaaS revenue
Alibaba AI-capex J-curve: operating cash flow into the AI/cloud buildout, down into negative free cash flow, and back up as deployed capacity converts into MaaS revenue or stalls in a value trap.
deployed AI/cloud capacity
mix shift: IaaS to MaaS
non-GAAP
adjusted EPS
compressed YoY
free cash flow
negative
0
group margin
pending
cycle reverses as capacity converts
cloud external revenue reaccelerates
AI share up; margin lift in
1-2 quarters
stalled buildout
value trap
FCF stays negative
fast conversion
recovery
FCF positive
operating cash flow
fiscal Q4 FY26
weak vs buildout
AI/cloud
infra capex
J-curve trough