Ceasefire state a diplomatic headline reroutes the oil leg — the Aug 3 reverse case
Why the equity selloff is duration-shaped: oil through Hormuz to the long end Iran Oman transit to a trickle cargo vessel hit Ceasefire expires no deal signed Oman strike looms Brent crude above $90 revives inflation expectations Term premium long-dated debt 30y ~5.3% deal: oil leg unwinds rates up Duration-shaped equity QQQ -1.76% vs SPY -0.61% · long duration discount rates up first Diplomatic breakthrough oil leg unwinds fast part of yield pressure eases Aug 3 replay: strike off, oil tumbled 5 6 1 2 3 4