AI demand
capacity add
Scarcity: margins peak
NAND supply/demand balance drives SanDisk's earnings peak and its reversion
Hyperscaler AI capex
SSD demand > half of NAND
JV capacity add
Kioxia-SanDisk expansion
supply growth passing demand flips the path
cycle: peak margins fund the expansion
Scarcity peak
ASPs and margins peak
peak earnings base
backlog shields only some FY27 bits
Commodity reversion
ASPs and margins revert
commodity-level margins
negative forward P/E anticipates
Reversion to commodity margins is the driven path, not a certainty: a NAND floor-price regime can hold margins above commodity, so the scarcity peak and its reversal are both reachable ends of the same balance.