gate output:
computing
three links must hold simultaneously
base rate: 1928-avg Dow CAGR needs ~10 yr to 100k, not ~3 yr
Earnings link
holds
EPS compounds 25-33%/yr vs 10% trend; ~50% in Q2 26
Multiple link
holds
CAPE 40.5 & P/E ~30 hold or expand vs 17x avg
Macro-uptime
holds
no recession / tariff shock / rate shock through Jan 2029
Three-link AND-gate a Dow double by 2029 would require
Earnings, multiple, and macro-uptime links feed an AND-gate. All three must hold for the double outcome; breaking any one falsifies the call.
Three-link AND-gate a Dow double by 2029 would require
Earnings
25-33%/yr EPS
Multiple
CAPE 40.5 holds
Macro-uptime
no recession
input link 1
input link 2
input link 3
AND
triple-link gate
Dow double
Dow 100,000
S&P ~15,600
by Jan 2029
Falsified
chain breaks
base-rate wins
output