demand state:
destocking
recovery
tight / pricing on
toggle flow:
pause particles
TXN 300mm fab ramp: demand to utilization to margin to FCF to capital return
Cross-section of a 300mm analog wafer fab feeding a utilization gauge, a cost-advantage gate, a pricing-power threshold, an FCF reservoir, and dividend/buyback terminals. Scenario control reroutes flow.
TXN 300mm analog/embedded fab ramp — the 2026 thesis engine
substrate
financial plumbing
300mm analog fabs
SM1-4 · LFAB1/2 · RFAB2
litho/dep
etch
utilization
—
probe · test
industrial
auto / DC
wafer output
300mm
cost
margin
61%
+340bps
pricing
13wk LT
threshold
$—
CHIPS
FCF
dividend
22yr ↑
buyback
step 2
step 3
step 4
demand → utilization → 300mm cost advantage → margin → pricing power → FCF → capital return
scenario control reroutes flow through the fab ramp
factory utilization
—
gross margin (Q2'26)
—
FCF (TTM)
—
capital return
—
demand / wafer flow
operating cash
CHIPS Act offset
shareholder returns