gates passing: 0/3
Value-trap waterfall: one-time-boosted EPS and falling cash generation gate the buy case 1 Q4 FY26 EPS $0.72 one-time IEEPA ~$0.52 tariff refund base $0.20 non-recurring refund pit 2 ex-benefit ~$0.20 vs ~$0.12 consensus 3 ttm free cash flow fell from ~$6.6B FCF $2.2B (mid-26) capex $0.7B holds capital return buybacks $123M dividend 4.1% 77% payout funds return 4 6 valuation feed flat / down currency-neutral revenue <42% ex-tariff gross margin <$2.5B TTM FCF floor ~$2.5B 5 trap: cheap is a trap EPS falls · fwd P/E rises bottom: multiple re-rates margins mid-40s · cash converts dividend cut · forward P/E rises rev flat · GM <42% · FCF <$2.5B wholesale up · NIKE Direct stable FCF converts · reclaims 50d / 200d