Hyperscaler capex cycle forks: AMD accelerator shipments vs Alphabet FCF drag A single 2026 hyperscaler capex dollar forks at the top. Left: AMD MI450/Helios substrate with HBM4 stack and CoWoS interposer gates, leading to a conditional shipments-ramp terminal. Right: Alphabet capex drains into depreciation drag and a Q2 2026 negative FCF sink, with a $514B backlog return loop and TPU revenue deferred to 2027. Big Tech 2026 capex ~$700B+ Amazon ~$200B · MSFT ~$190B · GOOGL $195-205B Meta $115-135B · Goldman: $5.3T cum. through 2030 AMD path 14 GW pipeline OpenAI 6 · Meta 6 · Anthropic 2 HBM4 stack 8 DRAM + logic die CoWoS interposer HBM4 supply gate CoWoS capacity gate click a gate to toggle MI450/Helios ramp H2 2026 · forward orders not contracted revenue Alphabet path FY2026 capex $195-205B (raised) 2027 guides up again Depreciation drag capex hits P&L over time 3rd-party capacity Q2 2026 FCF sink −$5.9B free cash flow Q3 2026 margin pressure depreciation + capacity costs Cloud backlog $514B up $50B sequentially justifies the spend TPU revenue: 2026 thin 2027 majority return: demand justifies the drag

The same capex dollar forks: AMD receives forward-looking accelerator orders (not contracted GAAP revenue); Alphabet books the spend as depreciation and third-party capacity costs that compress FCF now.